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Tech, Startups, and Investing

25+ years building startups in SF & Silicon Valley. Now living in exile. On a journey from tech entrepreneur to VC & portfolio manager. Subscribe now for the latest insights on stocks, startups & emerging tech.

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James Thomason

Narratives pick the KPI, and the KPI picks the losers

30 Dec 2025 · 3 min read

Narratives pick the KPI, and the KPI picks the losers

How the metrics that attract capital in emerging tech sectors systematically favor the companies least likely to dominate long-term

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The pricing game versus the valuation game

4 Dec 2025 · 9 min read

The pricing game versus the valuation game

Alpha for general purpose technologies skews later than you think

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Too many winners, not enough market

20 Nov 2025 · 9 min read

Too many winners, not enough market

A simple framework for identifying sectors priced beyond arithmetic reality reveals which AI layers face inevitable repricing

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The option premium view of bubbles

12 Nov 2025 · 15 min read

The option premium view of bubbles

Why we need our speculative manias.

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Moore or less the bottleneck

23 Oct 2025 · 8 min read

Moore or less the bottleneck

What happens if software outpaces hardware in AI?

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The AI utility trap

29 Sep 2025 · 5 min read

The AI utility trap

Rapid AI commoditization could be outpacing traditional value capture mechanisms

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Deus ex nihilo

23 Sep 2025 · 4 min read

Deus ex nihilo

Decoherence and the superposition of capital in the OpenAI ecosytem

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We're having turtle soup

21 Sep 2025 · 4 min read

We're having turtle soup

Estimating the impact of the Administration's $100k tax on H1B visas

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It's good to be the king

21 Sep 2025 · 3 min read

It's good to be the king

How Nvidia's Jensen Huang transformed Intel into a willing vassal

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Notes on becoming a vampire

20 Sep 2025 · 2 min read

Notes on becoming a vampire

Character development was never Silicon Valley's strong suit

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It's almost over

24 Jan 2025 · 9 min read

It's almost over

When AI's infinite supply meets weakening demand, the hangover won't be pretty.

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Death rattle in the dream machine

19 Jun 2024 · 3 min read

Death rattle in the dream machine

Content warning: This piece contains strong language and themes. Hide your children. Avert your eyes. For the last 17 years, whenever the bell would ring, Pavlov would pick up his

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Quantum thermodynamic flatulation

24 Mar 2024 · 3 min read

Quantum thermodynamic flatulation

The startup Extropic.ai headed by cult leader Twitter X personality Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) came out of stealth mode recently, on the heels of a $14.1M Series Seed

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Oracle flaps but will it fly?

12 Mar 2024 · 7 min read

Oracle flaps but will it fly?

Against all odds, that ancient, gritty, sluggish technology giant is finally emerging into the rarefied air of the cloud. Sure, it may be 16 years late to the party, but the important thing is it is actually happening. Larry Ellison is finally joining his billionaire friends in the sky.

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Nvidia's strategic problem

27 Feb 2024 · 10 min read

Nvidia's strategic problem

Nvidia faces an inevitable strategic dilemma despite its meteoric hardware success. While shifting to services opens new markets, direct competition with hyperscalers brings formidable challenges that threaten its dominance.

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Google's public AI struggle session

22 Feb 2024 · 2 min read

Google's public AI struggle session

Amidst the sprawling digital empire that Alphabet has meticulously curated, the company's foray into AI presents a paradox of progress mired by ideological bias. This ideological contamination, far

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Identifying sub-themes in the AI wave

9 Feb 2024 · 10 min read

Identifying sub-themes in the AI wave

As AI and autonomous systems progress from novelties to major economic forces, where can we look for the most promising investment opportunities?

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Google might even come back to win this round of AI

2 Feb 2024 · 9 min read

Google might even come back to win this round of AI

Google confronts disruption from advancing AI as it balances perfecting search’s enduring relevance while proactively architecting accreditation structures to unlock new revenue streams and cement crucial media relationships.

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