Narratives pick the KPI, and the KPI picks the losers
How the metrics that attract capital in emerging tech sectors systematically favor the companies least likely to dominate long-term
James Thomason
Notes on investing in technology disruption. Engineer → Founder → CTO → VC & long/short equity PM. 25 years of Silicon Valley pattern recognition.
The pricing game versus the valuation game
Alpha for general purpose technologies skews later than you think
Too many winners, not enough market
A simple framework for identifying sectors priced beyond arithmetic reality reveals which AI layers face inevitable repricing
The option premium view of bubbles
Why we need our speculative manias.
Moore or less the bottleneck
What happens if software outpaces hardware in AI?
The AI utility trap
Rapid AI commoditization could be outpacing traditional value capture mechanisms
Deus ex nihilo
Decoherence and the superposition of capital in the OpenAI ecosytem
We're having turtle soup
Estimating the impact of the Administration's $100k tax on H1B visas
It's good to be the king
How Nvidia's Jensen Huang transformed Intel into a willing vassal
Notes on becoming a vampire
Character development was never Silicon Valley's strong suit
It's almost over
When AI's infinite supply meets weakening demand, the hangover won't be pretty.
Death rattle in the dream machine
Content warning: This piece contains strong language and themes. Hide your children. Avert your eyes. For the last 17 years, whenever the bell would ring, Pavlov would pick
Quantum thermodynamic flatulation
The startup Extropic.ai headed by cult leader Twitter X personality Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) came out of stealth mode recently, on the heels of a $14.1M
Oracle flaps but will it fly?
Against all odds, that ancient, gritty, sluggish technology giant is finally emerging into the rarefied air of the cloud. Sure, it may be 16 years late to the party, but the important thing is it is actually happening. Larry Ellison is finally joining his billionaire friends in the sky.
Nvidia's strategic problem
Nvidia faces an inevitable strategic dilemma despite its meteoric hardware success. While shifting to services opens new markets, direct competition with hyperscalers brings formidable challenges that threaten its dominance.
