Notes on investing in technology disruption. Engineer → Founder → CTO → VC & long/short equity PM. 25 years of Silicon Valley pattern recognition.

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Field Notes Sep 21, 2025

We're having turtle soup

Estimating the impact of the Administration's $100k tax on H1B visas

4 min read
Field Notes Sep 20, 2025

Notes on becoming a vampire

Character development was never Silicon Valley's strong suit

2 min read
Analyst Notes Jan 24, 2025

It's almost over

There will be no crying allowed in the casino

9 min read
Field Notes Jun 19, 2024

Death rattle in the dream machine

Content warning: This piece contains strong language and themes. Hide your children. Avert your eyes. For the last 17 years, whenever the bell would ring, Pavlov would pick

3 min read
Analyst Notes Mar 24, 2024

Quantum thermodynamic flatulation

The startup Extropic.ai headed by cult leader Twitter X personality Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) came out of stealth mode recently, on the heels of a $14.1M

3 min read
ORCL Mar 12, 2024

Oracle flaps but will it fly?

Against all odds, that ancient, gritty, sluggish technology giant is finally emerging into the rarefied air of the cloud. Sure, it may be 16 years late to the party, but the important thing is it is actually happening. Larry Ellison is finally joining his billionaire friends in the sky.

7 min read
NVDA Feb 27, 2024

Nvidia's strategic problem

Nvidia faces an inevitable strategic dilemma despite its meteoric hardware success. While shifting to services opens new markets, direct competition with hyperscalers brings formidable challenges that threaten its dominance.

10 min read
Investing Feb 9, 2024

Identifying sub-themes in the AI wave

As AI and autonomous systems progress from novelties to major economic forces, where can we look for the most promising investment opportunities?

10 min read
Analyst Notes Feb 2, 2024

Google might even come back to win this round of AI

Google confronts disruption from advancing AI as it balances perfecting search’s enduring relevance while proactively architecting accreditation structures to unlock new revenue streams and cement crucial media relationships.

9 min read
Foundations Jan 30, 2024

Investing in the Long Waves

Long waves of technological and economic progress shape modern history. The best investors ride these cycles of creative destruction, reaping exponential rewards by backing innovations early.

12 min read
AI Jan 8, 2024

Sitting at Nietzsche's slot machine

Gambling with creativity in a world where technology and AI spins the wheel of fate

2 min read
Nietzsche's last man pulls the lever of technological determinism
AI Jan 6, 2024

The Rising Cult of Robot Jesus

Welcome to 2024 where AI obsession and ideology are merging into a weird kind of techno-religion.

9 min read