The value chain cascade
Why the most important phase of a technology begins the moment it stops improving.
Tag
Narratives pick the KPI, and the KPI picks the losers
How the metrics that attract capital in emerging tech sectors systematically favor the companies least likely to dominate long-term
The pricing game versus the valuation game
Alpha for general purpose technologies skews later than you think
Too many winners, not enough market
A simple framework for identifying sectors priced beyond arithmetic reality reveals which AI layers face inevitable repricing
The option premium view of bubbles
Why we need our speculative manias.
Moore or less the bottleneck
What happens if software outpaces hardware in AI?
The AI utility trap
Rapid AI commoditization could be outpacing traditional value capture mechanisms
Investing in the Long Waves
Long waves of technological and economic progress shape modern history. The best investors ride these cycles of creative destruction, reaping exponential rewards by backing innovations early.
