James Thomason

4 Dec 2025 · 9 min read

The pricing game versus the valuation game

Alpha for general purpose technologies skews later than you think

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20 Nov 2025 · 9 min read

Too many winners, not enough market

A simple framework for identifying sectors priced beyond arithmetic reality reveals which AI layers face inevitable repricing

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12 Nov 2025 · 15 min read

The option premium view of bubbles

Why we need our speculative manias.

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23 Oct 2025 · 8 min read

Moore or less the bottleneck

What happens if software outpaces hardware in AI?

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29 Sep 2025 · 5 min read

The AI utility trap

Rapid AI commoditization could be outpacing traditional value capture mechanisms

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23 Sep 2025 · 4 min read

Deus ex nihilo

Decoherence and the superposition of capital in the OpenAI ecosytem

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21 Sep 2025 · 4 min read

We're having turtle soup

Estimating the impact of the Administration's $100k tax on H1B visas

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21 Sep 2025 · 3 min read

It's good to be the king

How Nvidia's Jensen Huang transformed Intel into a willing vassal

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20 Sep 2025 · 2 min read

Notes on becoming a vampire

Character development was never Silicon Valley's strong suit

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24 Jan 2025 · 9 min read

It's almost over

When AI's infinite supply meets weakening demand, the hangover won't be pretty.

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19 Jun 2024 · 3 min read

Death rattle in the dream machine

Content warning: This piece contains strong language and themes. Hide your children. Avert your eyes. For the last 17 years, whenever the bell would ring, Pavlov would pick up his

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24 Mar 2024 · 3 min read

Quantum thermodynamic flatulation

The startup Extropic.ai headed by cult leader Twitter X personality Beff Jezos (Guillaume Verdon) came out of stealth mode recently, on the heels of a $14.1M Series Seed

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ORCL

12 Mar 2024 · 7 min read

Oracle flaps but will it fly?

Against all odds, that ancient, gritty, sluggish technology giant is finally emerging into the rarefied air of the cloud. Sure, it may be 16 years late to the party, but the important thing is it is actually happening. Larry Ellison is finally joining his billionaire friends in the sky.

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NVDA

27 Feb 2024 · 10 min read

Nvidia's strategic problem

Nvidia faces an inevitable strategic dilemma despite its meteoric hardware success. While shifting to services opens new markets, direct competition with hyperscalers brings formidable challenges that threaten its dominance.

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22 Feb 2024 · 2 min read

Google's public AI struggle session

Amidst the sprawling digital empire that Alphabet has meticulously curated, the company's foray into AI presents a paradox of progress mired by ideological bias. This ideological contamination, far

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Investing

9 Feb 2024 · 10 min read

Identifying sub-themes in the AI wave

As AI and autonomous systems progress from novelties to major economic forces, where can we look for the most promising investment opportunities?

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Investing

2 Feb 2024 · 9 min read

Google might even come back to win this round of AI

Google confronts disruption from advancing AI as it balances perfecting search’s enduring relevance while proactively architecting accreditation structures to unlock new revenue streams and cement crucial media relationships.

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Investing

30 Jan 2024 · 12 min read

Investing in the Long Waves

Long waves of technological and economic progress shape modern history. The best investors ride these cycles of creative destruction, reaping exponential rewards by backing innovations early.

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